Models for landscape and land-use dynamics are effective decision-support instruments and can be used for manifold practical purposes. They are spatially explicit and can serve as basis for scenarioanalysis (LAMBIN, GEIST 2006).
In this project we aim at defining scenarios of potential implementation of policy instruments, for example PES for conservation or reforestation or estimating potential consequences of opportunity costs (WP 3) on land use-dynamics. The potential effect of regulative instruments or future infrastructural investments (e.g. roads) is additionally subject of thiswork package.
Thus, potential land use conflicts can be identified based on predicted deforestation areas in relation to protected areas or topographical positions with specific protective functions. Conclusions on potential conflicts between wood production as result from reforestation activities versus food security from agricultural land will be derived. For best precision and efficiency of the models we envisage a careful definition of the scenarios under participation and incooperation with national and international stakeholders and decision makers.