Work Package 6

“Landscape modelling and policy scenarios“

Models for landscape and land-use dynamics are effective decision-support instruments and can be used for manifold practical purposes. They are spatially explicit and can serve as basis for scenarioanalysis (LAMBIN, GEIST 2006).

In this project we aim at defining scenarios of potential implementation of policy instruments, for example PES for conservation or reforestation or estimating potential consequences of opportunity costs (WP 3) on land use-dynamics. The potential effect of regulative instruments or future infrastructural investments (e.g. roads) is additionally subject of thiswork package.

Thus, potential land use conflicts can be identified based on predicted deforestation areas in relation to protected areas or topographical positions with specific protective functions. Conclusions on potential conflicts between wood production as result from reforestation activities versus food security from agricultural land will be derived. For best precision and efficiency of the models we envisage a careful definition of the scenarios under participation and incooperation with national and international stakeholders and decision makers.

Research questions

  • How will de- and reforestation patterns develop under stable conditions? Where are hotspots of de- and reforestation today and in future? Which conclusions on potential land use conflicts can be derived?
  • How will de- and reforestation patterns perform under consideration of defined regulative scenarios or under scenarios for PES? Which ecological and economic consequences can be derived? Which recommendations for mitigation of potential land use conflicts can be derived, for example for the establishment of protected areas?
  • Which user types and which modifications of land-use systems can provide highest efficiency for increased forest cover and avoided deforestation?

Methods

Data from WP 2-5 will be combined with spatially explicit data from WP 1 and integrated into landscape simulation models such as Dinamica Ego, Clue-S or others.

In a first step, “business as usualscenarios” will be developed by extrapolating current and historic drivers of land use-change. In a second step two packages of scenarios for potential policy instruments will be defined in cooperation with local stakeholders (e.g. ministries, communitiesand NGOs) and later incorporated asrestrictions and functions into the model.

The first package includes more regulative instruments (protected areas, protected forests, critical distances to rivers, slopes, etc.), the second one is focusing on incentives for avoided deforestation and reforestation including estimates about efficiency in relationship with opportunity costs of alternative land uses. This way, the potential impact of different policy approaches on land-use patterns can be simulated, and effects on forest configuration, ecosystem services and livelihoods be deduced.